Election

U of T graduate students explore new wards for Urban Policy Lab program to help Toronto voters

noreen.rasbach — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 18:49:06 +0000

U of T graduate students explore new wards for Urban Policy Lab program to help Toronto voters

noreen.rasbach Fri, 10/19/2018 - 14:49

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Alex Gold-Apel, one of the students who studied Toronto's Ward 18, says many people he talked to say they won't be voting because they don't believe politicians will do anything to solve the ward's problems (photo courtesy of Alex Gold-Apel)

Angela Gu

Topic

City & Culture

Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy

Alumni

Cities

Election

Faculty of Arts & Science

Graduate Students

Transit

Transportation

Transit problems. Traffic congestion. Lack of affordable housing. They are three of the leading issues on the minds of Torontonians as they get ready to cast their votes in Monday's municipal election.

To find out more about the issues at play and what matters most to Toronto residents in this election, University of Toronto graduate students have been heading out to each of the city’s new 25 wards as part of a newly launched initiative called Munk in the City. It is run by the Urban Policy Lab, a teaching and research hub at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy.

Assistant professor Gabriel Eidelman, the founder and director of the Urban Policy Lab, says the project allows students in both programs -– global affairs and public policy – to work together and think more about the city and its issues. There is value, he says, in comparing what they learn with other cities and then applying the takeaway lessons.

“This is the advantage of being in and teaching in cities,” he says.

Seventy-five students in the Master of Global Affairs and Master of Public Policy programs have been pounding the pavement in teams, talking to residents and local businesses.

One group explored Ward 18 – Willowdale. This is a rapidly growing area, with highrise buildings springing up on the main arterial road, Yonge Street. As one turns east or west onto quieter side streets, condos and apartments give way to single-family homes. The ward is diverse on many counts: from ethnicity to income to household size.

Alex Gold-Apel, one of the students in the Ward 18 group, says he found transportation was almost a universal concern among the residents: too much congestion and construction, and not enough transit.

The area is home to a younger segment of the population – one-third of the residents are between 25 and 44 years old, according to the most recent census. Gold-Apel says he found that affordable housing is one of the most important issues for young people in the city.

Gold-Apel and his group members also learned that there is a high population of recent immigrants in Ward 18 who have not yet obtained Canadian citizenship. These are permanent residents who may be passionate about city issues but are unable to vote and have a direct influence on the makeup of city council.

The group also encountered residents who will not be voting in this election by choice, sometimes because of a lack of knowledge about the candidates and their views.

For those residents, the Urban Policy Lab has partnered with Vox Pop Labs, whose cofounder Clifton van der Linden is a U of T PhD student, and the CBC in a civic engagement tool to help: Vote Compass. The online tool makes it easy for voters to learn how their political views align with those of candidates running for office.

The Urban Policy Lab’s contribution to Vote Compass comes in the form of the Council Scorecard, a civic education project, developed in collaboration with journalist Matt Elliott, that aims to present municipal voting records in compelling and accessible new formats.

Running the numbers: A U of T expert breaks down how political polls dictate voter behaviour

ullahnor — Thu, 03 Nov 2016 16:52:28 +0000

Running the numbers: A U of T expert breaks down how political polls dictate voter behaviour

ullahnor Thu, 11/03/2016 - 12:52

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Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are neck-and-neck in the final days leading up to the U.S. presidential election (photo by Gage Skidmore via Wikimedia Commons)

Blake Eligh

Author legacy

Blake Eligh

Topic

With a few days left before the U.S. presidential election, millions are watching the polls, hoping to divine whether Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton will win.

A U of T Mississauga researcher believes polls, in turn, can have an effect on how people vote.

Randy Besco, a post-doctoral researcher with U of T Mississauga's department of political science, looked at how candidates who are behind in the polls are viewed by partisan voters and how that might affect voter behaviour.

In his 2016 paper “Partisans and a Social Theory of Poll Effects,” Besco found that poll results offer a window into how voters see themselves.

“Supporting a political candidate is a way for people to self-identify,” he says. “As a supporter, the voter takes on the identity of a group of people they feel like they belong to.”

But when a candidate’s popularity is on the wane, it can reflect badly on supporters and change their behaviour, he says.

“People prefer voting for winners. Losing says something bad about the party and by extension, its members and supporters. Nobody likes to identify with a losing group. It says something bad about you.”

One of the factors that can influence behaviour is how much other people know about our political leanings. Showing candidate support with lawn signs, conversations or on social media can become a problem when the candidate starts to slip in the polls, he says.

“We really don’t like it when other people know that we support a loser,” Besco says. “We found that partisans who talk a lot about their vote choice are especially sensitive to the effects of negative polls.”

Besco’s research presented U.S.-study participants with fictional scenarios and asked participants to respond based on political affiliation and scenario-polling results.

Supporting a losing candidate can have several effects on voters, he says.

“It can mobilize them to get out and vote, giving them the feeling that their vote might make a difference. Alternately, they might switch their support to another candidate. If a candidate is very far behind, those same voters might feel that their vote doesn’t really count and decide to stay home.”

“No candidate will predict a solid win, and no candidate wants to be perceived as already having lost the election. That’s why politicians always say it’s a close race,” Besco says. “We know that being too far behind the other candidate – about 15 per cent – will discourage voters from supporting the losing candidate. Voters may feel the race is a lost cause. A smaller gap of about three per cent may motivate engaged voters.

Thanks to Internet technology and mechanical polls, Besco says, it has become very inexpensive to do political polling. He notes that Elections Canada prohibits the publication of new election surveys or opinion polls on election day.

“We see that poll results directly affect voter behaviour and the effects of polling are a lot more important than they ever have been in the past,” he says.

Meet the new cabinet ministers from the University of Toronto

sgupta — Wed, 04 Nov 2015 14:55:46 +0000

Meet the new cabinet ministers from the University of Toronto sgupta Wed, 11/04/2015 - 09:55

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(photo by Asif Ali via Flickr)

Alan Christie

Author legacy

Alan Christie

St. Michael's College

Election 2015: social media highlights of a 78-day campaign

sgupta — Tue, 20 Oct 2015 15:22:46 +0000

Election 2015: social media highlights of a 78-day campaign sgupta Tue, 10/20/2015 - 11:22

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One of the images shared widely via social media on election night featured Justin Trudeau's head superimposed on Jose Bautista's body

Sarah Khan

Author legacy

Sarah Khan

Features

Undergraduate Students

During its 78-day campaign, the 42nd federal election in Canada dominated conversations at the University of Toronto –along with the Blue Jays and exams.

U of T experts weighed in with their analysis of the election campaign strategies, tactics and issues while students took to video and social media to urge each other to vote and to share their opinions on election priorities and party platforms.

Election 2015: “If you can make it in Brampton, you can make it anywhere,” says expert

sgupta — Mon, 19 Oct 2015 17:15:24 +0000

Election 2015: “If you can make it in Brampton, you can make it anywhere,” says expert sgupta Mon, 10/19/2015 - 13:15

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(photo by Sean_Marshall via flickr)

Noreen Ahmed-Ullah

Author legacy

Noreen Ahmed-Ullah

Subheadline

Associate Professor Peter Loewen on the significance of the region and its five seats

Like much of the GTA, Brampton voted Liberal Monday, turfing out its Conservative representatives.

In the weeks leading up to the election, Brampton was a key battleground between Conservatives and Liberals. With five seats up for grabs, Brampton was an important player, says Associate Professor Peter Loewen of political science – and with recent history showing anything could happen in Brampton, Loewen was keenly watching the city's races and polling residents in the days leading up to the election.

In 2011, Brampton went from a Liberal stronghold to a Conservative sweep. The region had seen its population jump by 21 per cent and visible minorities account for 66 per cent of the residents. With the region's demographics changing rapidly, each Brampton riding had voted Conservative, helping to propel Stephen Harper to a majority government.

All of that meant pundits weren't surprised when Liberal leader Justin Trudeau picked Brampton to hold his largest campaign rally earlier this month. Or when the Conservatives ran ads in ethnic media last week claiming Trudeau would put brothels in their neighbourhoods – a move many felt was targeted to immigrant communities such as those in Brampton – and followed that up with a rally in Brampton.

Loewen talked to U of T News about voter sympathies in the area and why the city played such a significant role.

Why did Brampton matter so much in this election?
I think Brampton matters for at least three reasons. First, five seats are up for grabs. All were won by the Tories in the last election. To win government, those were useful pick-ups for the Liberals. To hold government, the Tories needed to protect them.

Second, Brampton is a bit of a media centre for a large non-English press that has reach and influence across the GTA.

Third, the Brampton constituencies are just the type that each party has tailored its policy packages to win. “If you can make it in Brampton, you can make it anywhere.”

Why did Brampton back the Conservatives during the last federal election?
On the face of it, it may seem surprising, but it should not. Brampton is exactly the demographic the Tories targeted: middle class, family-oriented, a lot of households often with a sole breadwinner, a distinct sense of being squeezed by taxes. The only factor that might – on the surface – have moved it out of the Tory category is the long-standing poor performance of the Tories among new Canadians. But that assumption fundamentally misunderstands both the Tories increased appeal among all immigrants and their specific appeal among many South Asian groups.

So what happened Monday night? How did the Liberals take it all in Brampton? Do the ridings vote as one community?
There was a uniform swing towards the Liberals. Those who voted NDP last time realized they needed to vote Liberal to remove the Prime Minister. They needed to coordinate, and they did.

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Election 2015: U of T students vote

sgupta — Mon, 19 Oct 2015 14:14:19 +0000

Election 2015: U of T students vote sgupta Mon, 10/19/2015 - 10:14

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“I was really excited that I could finally have a say in what goes on,” says Liana Ernszt with fellow first-time voters Arin Klein and Ben Levy (all photos by Johnny Guatto)

Alan Christie

Author legacy

Alan Christie

Trinity College

Undergraduate Students

Faculty of Arts & Science

The Blue Jays and the ballot box: did Stroman send you to the polls?

sgupta — Mon, 19 Oct 2015 10:32:05 +0000

The Blue Jays and the ballot box: did Stroman send you to the polls? sgupta Mon, 10/19/2015 - 06:32

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(photo by recreation via flickr)

Arthur Kaptainis

Author legacy

Arthur Kaptainis

Faculty of Arts & Science

Election 2015

Election

UTSC

Subheadline

U of T experts on the connection between politics and sports

Monday is the day of decision across the country. Will Canadians flock to the polling stations or watch the Toronto Blue Jays battle back from a 2-0 deficit against the Kansas City Royals in the American League Championship Series?

These are not mutually exclusive options. Could there be a link between exercising your democratic rights and cheering on the team?

“The question of whether the good feelings and community spirit generated by sports victories spill over into the political arena has long been speculated on,” notes Professor Bruce Kidd, vice-president and principal of University of Toronto Scarborough.

The Progressive Conservatives had hoped the combination of Team Canada’s victory in the 1987 Canada Cup hockey tournament and worldwide approval of the 1988 Winter Olympics in Calgary would give Canadians confidence that Canada had nothing to fear from international competition, says Kidd. It was a feeling with relevance to the federal election of November 1988, fought substantially on the issue of free trade, which the Tories won with a majority.

In 1971, Kidd adds, the Liberal government of Pierre Elliott Trudeau created Sport Canada as a mechanism to boost support for high-performance athletes. The belief was that victories in international competition give Canadians a better sense of themselves.

“But of course, how do you measure such a effect?” he asks. “It's almost impossible. So I'm reluctant to say anything about the spillover effect of the Jays.”

David Roberts, a lecturer in urban studies at Innis College, is likewise open to the possibility of a Blue Jays election boost but doubtful that any means exist to subject the phenomenon to scientific analysis.

“There are lots of things that drive voter turnout,” he says. “I have read that there have been record numbers of people voting in early polls, even while these polls were on days when the Jays faced elimination.”

It was natural, he adds, for political leaders to embrace the Blue Jays – while paradoxically avoiding games to prevent the perception of having jinxed the team in the event of a loss. This alone establishes a connection.

It also makes clear that the Blue Jays have become Canada’s team, and not just a phenomenon of interest to Torontonians. Fans from all over western Canada descended on Seattle late in the regular season.

Has the animosity often alleged to exist between Toronto and Canadians from other parts of the country been suspended?

“These tensions have roots and manifestations that go beyond a shared hope for the success of the Blue Jays,” Roberts says. “Even though the Jays are intimately connected to the city of Toronto, fans from other parts of the country find it easy to disconnect the two.”

If there has been one downer in the pennant drive, it was surely the episode in the series with the Texas Rangers in which fans threw beer cans on the field of the Rogers Centre after a controversial decision. An image of a mother and infant in distress was widely disseminated.

“Of course this behaviour cannot be condoned,” Roberts says. “But I hope we can place these acts beside the crowds that gathered to celebrate at the intersection of Yonge and Dundas. They took over the streets, but only during red lights, dispersing when traffic needed to pass.

“There are lots of ways in which people chose to celebrate victory after what was a bizarre and at times quite tense game. Most did not involve throwing beer. Hopefully those are more formative of the city’s image.”

Kidd, an Olympian and gold medalist in the 1962 Commonwealth Games, is philosophical about the beer-throwing outburst (which led the Blue Jays organization to announce a review of the policy of selling beer in cans).

“The beer-throwing incident did not reflect well upon the image of Toronto,” he said. “But such incidents are more characteristic of the atmosphere of professional sport than the cities where they occur. I do not think it will do much damage.”

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Election 2015: will the new government pay enough attention to city issues?

sgupta — Thu, 15 Oct 2015 07:16:39 +0000

Election 2015: will the new government pay enough attention to city issues? sgupta Thu, 10/15/2015 - 03:16

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(Montreal Metro photo by Doug via flickr)

Alan Christie

Author legacy

Alan Christie

Topic

Subheadline

Ottawa can play major role in transportation, affordable housing, daycare, urban expert says

In what Edmonton Mayor Don Iveson described as a “bidding war for cities” during the federal election campaign, all three main parties announced multi-billion dollar spending plans for transit, infrastructure and public housing.

But Professor Matti Siemiatycki says implementing a national standardized assessment process for infrastructure spending would be just as important as money.

In the weeks leading up to the election, U of T News asked experts from across the university for their analysis of the major issues, the debates, political advertising, public opinion polling and more.

Election 2015: what happens if nobody wins a clear majority?

sgupta — Tue, 13 Oct 2015 10:41:44 +0000

Election 2015: what happens if nobody wins a clear majority? sgupta Tue, 10/13/2015 - 06:41

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(photo by A Yee via flickr)

Alan Christie

Author legacy

Alan Christie

Why is the niqab an election issue? Q & A with Professor Aisha Ahmad

sgupta — Thu, 08 Oct 2015 10:11:30 +0000

Why is the niqab an election issue? Q & A with Professor Aisha Ahmad sgupta Thu, 10/08/2015 - 06:11

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The government has no business in the wardrobes of Canadians," says Ahmad

Jelena Damjanovic

Author legacy

Jelena Damjanovic

Topic

Subheadline

"...My wardrobe has fallen under increased scrutiny, as part of a toxic discourse that is pitting Canadians against their own neighbours," says Ahmad.

Quebec is the the only province requiring Muslim women who wear a niqab to unveil their faces when delivering public services as employees of the government, or receiving them as citizens.

But Prime Minister Stephen Harper has increasingly been voicing his support for the law outside of Quebec – sparking heated debates in the public discourse and gaining ground as an election issue.

U of T News spoke to Aisha Ahmad about the significance of the niqab for Muslim women and her thoughts on the proposed law.

Ahmad is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto, specializing in international security. She has conducted extensive field research on Islamic extremist groups in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Somalia.

What is a niqab?

The niqab is a veil that some Muslim women choose to wear that covers their nose and mouth. The majority of Muslim women do not wear a veil, but some make this choice out of religious conviction. Much more common among Muslim women is the hijab, which is a headscarf that covers the hair, but not the face.

As a security specialist who works on political conflict in the Muslim world, I've worn every possible variation of hijab and niqab from East Africa to the Middle East to South Asia. I fancy myself to be a connoisseur of the hijab and its many cultural and stylistic expressions.

As a Canadian Muslim, I also have experience wearing a hijab right here at home. At different points in my life, I have chosen to wear a hijab (and not wear a hijab), as an expression of my own socio-cultural identity. Right now, I choose to wear a hijab when I teach my classes at the university, but I don't wear it when I train at my boxing gym.

Before this election, my daily choice of dress has never been a political issue, and no one other than me has chosen what I wear on any given day. My closet is home to an array of summer dresses, boxing equipment, flower-printed hijabs, and a Team Canada Crosby jersey. All of a sudden, part of my wardrobe has fallen under increased scrutiny, as part of a toxic discourse that is pitting Canadians against their own neighbours.

What do you think about the government’s decision to try to ban face coverings at citizenship ceremonies?

It started with the citizenship ceremonies, but now the Conservatives are looking to exclude Muslim women in other public spaces as well. Harper’s obsession with forcibly removing Muslim women’s clothing has so far succeeded in distracting voters from his abysmal record on the economy and foreign relations.

Realizing they were on the ropes in this election, the Harper-Duceppe strategy has been to stoke up xenophobia over a tiny group of benign women. It has been part of a multi-pronged strategy aimed at targeting minorities who have little power, and are therefore easy prey. The attempted ban of the veil was deemed illegal by a federal judge, but the move did exactly what Harper and Duceppe hoped it would: distract voters from the issues that really matter to them.

From targeting religious attire to calling other cultures “barbaric,” the Harper-Duceppe strategy aims at actively creating social xenophobia and then presenting themselves as protectors against an imagined enemy.

This is an old move from a political playbook that we’ve seen used in places like the former Yugoslavia. And in all cases where this political tactic is used, xenophobic violence typically follows. From Bosnia to Rwanda, the science clearly shows that when political leaders use xenophobic tactics, they have the power to incite violence between neighbours who otherwise had no problems with each other.

The fact that these political strategies are being employed in Canada today, however, is astonishing and unprecedented. It’s a dark change in the political culture of Ottawa.

From a security specialist viewpoint, are there any circumstances when you would support calls for Muslim women to unveil their faces?

All circumstances in which a Muslim woman should be required to unveil for security purposes are already well established in our laws. Muslim women already unveil for identification purposes and screening at airports and government offices, in accordance with the many laws we have in place to ensure public safety. Muslim women who choose to wear a veil have cooperated with these procedures, just as other Canadians have.

Why is Harper focusing on this issue now?

Frankly, the Harper-Duceppe obsession with forcibly removing Muslim women’s clothing reeks of desperation and failure. But political leaders are by definition in positions of leadership and trust. Putting any vulnerable populations at risk in a desperate attempt to hold onto power should ostensibly disqualify a person from office.

The government has no business in the wardrobes of Canadians. It is time for those political frontrunners who are focused on the issues to be given the opportunity to lead, and refocus the public discourse on Canada’s real values of freedom, inclusivity, and respect.

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Election

U of T graduate students explore new wards for Urban Policy Lab program to help Toronto voters

Read more about Urban Policy Lab's Council Scorecard

Running the numbers: A U of T expert breaks down how political polls dictate voter behaviour

Meet the new cabinet ministers from the University of Toronto

Election 2015: social media highlights of a 78-day campaign

Read more Election 2015 coverage

Election 2015: “If you can make it in Brampton, you can make it anywhere,” says expert

Election 2015: U of T students vote

The Blue Jays and the ballot box: did Stroman send you to the polls?

Election 2015: will the new government pay enough attention to city issues?

Read more Election 2015 coverage

Read more about the transit survey

Election 2015: what happens if nobody wins a clear majority?

Read more Election 2015 coverage

Why is the niqab an election issue? Q & A with Professor Aisha Ahmad