International Relations

Human Rights

Politics

Research

U of T Mississauga

A group of students at the University of Toronto Mississauga are at the forefront of efforts to understand transitional justice across the globe – a scholarly field that confronts how to pursue accountability for human rights violations in the context of authoritarianism and violent political conflict.

Working with Geoff Dancy, associate professor in U of T Mississauga's department of political science, nine students are collecting data on criminal prosecutions, truth commissions, legal amnesties and reparations policies in all the regions of the world.

Their goal is “to provide a comprehensive database for academic research, and to predict human rights trends internationally," says team member Pedro Andrade, a fourth-year undergraduate student from Brazil.

Dancy, post-doctoral researcher Oskar Timo Thoms and the group of undergraduate students received a $3-million grant from Global Affairs Canada – administered jointly between Harvard University and U of T – for their Transitional Justice Evaluation Tools (TJET) project.

TJET's student researchers have developed a wide range of expertise while working on the project.

Mary Kazek, an undergraduate student studying international affairs and economics, has become a go-to authority on criminal proceedings against Chilean military and intelligence officers who were responsible for extensive human rights violations during the Pinochet regime.

Collecting data on over 500 prosecutions has also given Kazek an appreciation for detailed research.

“Political science tends to focus on the macro level and gloss over the details of atrocities and human rights violations, which prevents people from fully understanding the true horrors of what has happened," she says.

Third-year student Fatimah Ahsan, who is a U of T Global Scholar studying political science, has helped finalize an exhaustive database of over 80 truth commissions that were established in the last 50 years – including Canada's Truth and Reconciliation Commission, which completed its work in 2015.

“I personally enjoy how much I am able to learn about the cases,” Ahsan says. “Every case I code, I learn something about the country I am working on, including its history and political state.”

Other researchers are focused less on specific mechanisms of justice, and more on overall themes. Political science and criminology student Farah Radwan has spent months studying prosecutions of state agents for sex- and gender-based violence, combing through information on over 17,000 accused rights violators.

“I think the biggest thing I learned while working on this project is that the workload can seem daunting, and it is really time-consuming," she says. "But it is extremely rewarding and fulfilling when it’s done – and done right.”

The detail-oriented work has been challenging yet fulfilling. Through her work with TJET, political science student Nicole Fernando has come to specialize in coding, converting publicly available information into useable data.

“I love the methodical nature of coding – there is a process to follow for examining each case," she notes.

Amid their exacting individual research, the TJET group has come together through regular group meetings and team hangouts on the fifth floor of the Maanjiwe nendamowinan building on the U of T Mississauga campus.

“What has struck me the most is the team-oriented nature of the research. We regularly discuss with each other about our respective work, which gives us a better understanding of our contribution," says Joseph Mangin, a third-year student from France studying politics and international relations who has been going through news articles to collect data on global amnesty laws.

Dancy, who previously worked at Tulane University in New Orleans, brought the TJET project with him when he moved to U of T last summer.

He's effusive about the U of T student researchers currently taking part in the project.

"Not to diminish the work of other teams I’ve led, but this is probably the most joyful and committed group of students I’ve ever worked with," says Dancy, who gives each of his researchers coffee mugs labelled “Researching justice, one cup at a time.”

Dancy, along with colleagues from Harvard University, recently presented findings from TJET's data collection to Global Affairs Canada at a meeting in Ottawa.

“All of the hard work the students have done directly informed high-level policy conversations about how to proceed with transitional justice in contexts such as Ukraine and Ethiopia," he said.

Trend-spotting Google exec Colin McKay says U of T prepared him for dynamic career path

Christopher.Sorensen — Thu, 26 May 2022 13:19:51 +0000

Trend-spotting Google exec Colin McKay says U of T prepared him for dynamic career path

Christopher.Sorensen Thu, 05/26/2022 - 09:19

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After studying history and international relations at U of T, Colin McKay went on to work for the Office of the Privacy Commissioner of Canada and Google Canada (photo courtesy of McKay)

Peter Boisseau

Topic

Our Community

Alumni

Google

Trinity College

Colin McKay built an impressive career in government and industry by analyzing data and spotting trends – and he says his education in the University of Toronto's Faculty of Arts & Science contributed to his success.

McKay obtained a B.A. with distinction in history and international relations at U of T as a member of Trinity College, followed by a master's in history. He worked for the Office of the Privacy Commissioner of Canada before moving to Google Canada, where he currently heads government affairs and public policy.

“There is a clear trend line in my life because the work I was doing for my undergrad and graduate degrees was really about information collection, analysis and communications,” he says. “What I studied in terms of information and intelligence analysis translated into my early jobs, and that flowed into an opportunity with the privacy commissioner.”

He started at the Office of the Privacy Commissioner of Canada – which provides advice to individuals about protecting personal information and enforces federal privacy laws – in 2007, just a few years after the advent of Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. The rising popularity of social media prompted new questions and fuelled debate around privacy.

“I felt I had insights into that policy dialogue, as well as the specific work, based in part on the studies I had done at U of T,” McKay says, adding that it also helped to be an early adopter of social media.

“The work at the privacy commissioner helped me take a deep dive into the other side of information use and analysis, which added to the collection of skills that got me the job at Google.”

McKay was drawn to the field of international relations because his father was a diplomat whose job took the family all over the world.

“I also liked the multidisciplinary nature of being able to jump between economics, political science, history and specialist courses,” says McKay.

“And I took my time at U of T, because I was taking all the courses that appealed to me intellectually, but also because I was viewing the subject matter from a variety of perspectives and disciplines.”

One of McKay’s main roles at Google is understanding the evolving regulatory environment around privacy and data collection and how that affects the company and consumers. He’s also charged with navigating that landscape with policymakers, researchers and politicians drafting new policies and legislation.

His U of T education is an important foundation for that work as well, he says.

“There's a lot of conversation at the moment about how exactly we create a regulatory framework designed for 2022,” says McKay.

“It all goes to the multidisciplinary nature of my international relations degree. Whether it’s political science, economics or history,” he says.

“You have to work hard to understand the environment, the problems to be solved and the specific communities you deal with, to evaluate and execute decisions. That makes my role very interesting.”

He says his focus on following his own personal interests and professional challenges throughout his school years and career also gives him insights into the changing expectations of younger Canadians in the workforce.

“I'm not as confused as some of my peers about people being willing to abandon jobs or to fundamentally rethink what they want to do with their skills and their time. Because that's how I was initially trained and how I've behaved since then,” says McKay.

Previously a board member and vice chair at Media Smarts, a non-profit that promotes digital and media literacy, McKay says it's important for the public to be given adequate tools and training to appreciate the benefits – and risks – associated with technology.

“I think the overlap with the media literacy work I’ve been doing is that there is a level of expectation and burden on the individual to understand the implications for them of the technology they're using, both in the moment and in the future.”

'Absolutely tragic': The Munk School's Janice Stein on Russia's invasion of Ukraine

geoff.vendeville — Thu, 24 Feb 2022 16:37:43 +0000

'Absolutely tragic': The Munk School's Janice Stein on Russia's invasion of Ukraine

geoff.vendeville Thu, 02/24/2022 - 11:37

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Anti-war protestors in Italy hold placards following Russia's invasion of Ukraine (photo by Piero Cruciatti/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Lani Krantz

Topic

Russia

Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an all-out attack on Ukraine by air, land and sea only days after he sent the Russian military into two separatist regions of the country.

In the wake of the invasion, Western powers, including Canada, announced sanctions and other penalties for what is being viewed as a clear infringement of Ukraine’s sovereignty.

The military operation began even while members of the United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting at Ukraine's request.

Janice Stein, the founding director of the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy and the Belzberg Professor of Conflict Management in the department of political science in the Faculty of Arts & Science, says the window for a diplomatic solution is “vanishing to none,” and that the invasion marks a shift in the world order.

“Great power rivalry, which some had hoped had been relegated to the ashbin of history, is back with a vengeance,” she said.

The Munk School is hosting a panel discussion on the topic of Ukraine on Feb. 25 that will be hosted by Peter Mansbridge.

Stein spoke about the unfolding crisis in an interview Thursday morning with the Munk School’s Lani Krantz.

With the attacks overnight, Putin has acted on his threats of war. How far can we expect Russia to take this?

Formally, Russia invaded on Monday when it sent its troops over the border into the republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, which President Putin has recognized as independent. The war began eight years ago and escalated when Russia bombarded all of Ukraine’s cities and its tanks and artillery rolled across the border. Does Putin plan further escalation? Only he knows, but early military action suggests a wide and deep offensive in Ukraine – far beyond the “peacekeeping” operation in Luhansk and Donetsk that Putin ordered officially.

In that aggressive and angry speech he delivered a few days ago, Putin made sweeping claims about restoring greater Russia and argued that Ukraine became independent only through the foolish mistakes of past Russian leaders. Ukraine has declared a state of emergency, mobilized its reserves and its national guard, and ordered its citizens to take shelter, but its armed forces are badly outnumbered by Russian forces.

Can you explain how the recent escalations marked a departure from what was happening before?

In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and sent militia forces over the border into parts of Donetsk and Luhansk. Today, regular Russian military forces began a bombardment of all of Ukraine and sent ground forces across multiple points in Ukraine, far beyond Donetsk and Luhansk. The fabricated stories of fighting in these two provinces were clearly the pretext for a full-on invasion.

What is NATO’s role?

NATO, a collective defence organization, is obligated to come to the defence of its members. While Ukraine is not a member of NATO, several former Soviet republics that now border Russia are – Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, as well as Poland and Romania. NATO is currently reinforcing its deployment in Latvia, and Canada is sending additional forces. NATO will try to support the Ukrainian resistance with weapons and supplies, but will find it challenging to do because Russia already controls the air space over Ukraine. It will not send troops to Ukraine. Ukraine, in other words, stands alone in the face of the Russian attack. Europe, the United States, Canada and Japan are all responding with increasingly serious economic sanctions, but these sanctions will not deter Russian forces.

Is there a path back to more peaceful relations?

The window for diplomatic activity is vanishing to none. Putin seems to be seeking the political decapitation of the Ukrainian government as well as the occupation of parts of Ukrainian territory that matter to Russia. Ukraine’s independence will be fatally compromised. This is absolutely tragic for Ukraine, which finds itself the victim of aggression by its powerful neighbour, but terrible as well for Russia.

What is at stake in terms of global security?

European confidence in the foundational norm that the borders of a sovereign state cannot be changed unilaterally by force has been shattered. A Russian attack marks the end of one era and the beginning of another of complex, trilateral great power rivalry with European confidence in its own security shaken to the core. Great power rivalry, which some had hoped had been relegated to the ashbin of history, is back with a vengeance.

Flight PS752: A deadly combination of Iran's recklessness and incompetence, U of T expert says

Christopher.Sorensen — Tue, 14 Jan 2020 18:11:47 +0000

Flight PS752: A deadly combination of Iran's recklessness and incompetence, U of T expert says

Christopher.Sorensen Tue, 01/14/2020 - 13:11

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In this Jan. 8, 2020 photo, rescue workers search the scene where a Ukrainian plane crashed in Shahedshahr, southwest of the capital Tehran, Iran (photo by Ebrahim Noroozi/Canadian Press/AP)

Topic

The crash of Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752, with the loss of all 176 people on board, including 15 children and 57 Canadians, was a horrific tragedy. It’s also deeply revelatory regarding several seminal issues involving Iran.

Flight PS752 went down shortly after it took off from the Tehran airport, just hours after Iran fired some 15 ballistic missiles at two large bases in Iraq that housed American and allied forces, as retaliation for the U.S. drone strike that killed Qassem Soleimani.

The coincidence of the airline crash and the Iranian retaliation resulted in speculation and suspicion. The Iranian regime immediately and implausibly claimed mechanical problems as the crash cause. As telling evidence emerged that the aircraft was brought down by Iran’s own anti-aircraft missiles, Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization chief, Ali Abedzadeh, adamantly denied that the crash was caused by missiles. And then the story changed again: Iran finally admitted that it “unintentionally” shot down the airliner and blamed “human error.”

No weapons of mass destruction

Certainly, initial claims by Western intelligence that the airliner was brought down by Iranian missiles deserved careful scrutiny. “Intelligence-based” assertions by George W. Bush and Dick Cheney that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, after all, proved to be starkly wrong.

Nonetheless, it seemed a reasonable conclusion when extremely cautious leaders like Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau asserted that on the basis of strong evidence, including from Canadian intelligence services, it was highly likely that Iranian missiles shot down the airliner – an assertion backed by the British prime minister.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attends a candlelight vigil In Ottawa for victims of the Ukraine International Airlines crash in Tehran (photo by Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

There was also a video verified by the New York Times that appeared to show an Iranian missile hitting a plane in the air near Tehran’s airport, and a video trending on Iranian social media showed the same.

Further, there were reports that Iran had been bulldozing part of the crash site, that it did not secure the site as protocol would require, that much of the ground evidence is now gone and that Tehran is refusing to hand over the black boxes as normal procedure would demand.

It all strongly reinforced the impression that the Iranian regime was dissembling about the cause of the crash.

Larger picture of Iranian regime

But what’s likely to be most disturbing to the Iranian people is the larger picture of the behaviour of the Iranian regime and its long-term implications.

The theocratic regime has efficiently and violently suppressed all domestic dissent, and carefully but brutally fostered an image of regional and internal invincibility. It’s moved relentlessly to create a Shia arc controlled from Tehran, stretching from Iran to the Mediterranean. There was an aura of invulnerability around Soleimani, who led the Quds Force, representing the tip of the spear of Iranian imperial regional ambitions, domestic repression and world support for terrorism.

Soleimani seemed untouchable. Yet the Americans managed to so effectively reach him and remove him.

Protesters demonstrate in Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 4, 2020, against the U.S. airstrike in Iraq that killed Iranian Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani (photo by Ebrahim Noroozi/AP)

The Iranian regime, which threatened “hard revenge” for his targeted killing, settled for symbolic and feckless face-saving. Some of its ballistic missiles malfunctioned and others, either by design or prudent allied defence measures, failed to inflict any casualties when fired at U.S. bases in Iraq.

The response revealed something more than just fecklessness. The efficiency that the Iranian regime has repeatedly demonstrated in repressing any internal dissent seems to have evaporated when faced with an unpredictable, narcissistic and vindictive opponent like U.S. President Donald Trump, who chose not to play the game by the old rules.

The Iranian response was not only uncharacteristically weak but it reflected the fear of an all-out confrontation. Iranian overreach met Trumpian unpredictability.

Reckless and incompetent

The admission by Iran that its missiles brought down the flight is more than just a terrible tragedy.

It’s also revealed a deadly combination of the regime’s breathtaking recklessness and monumental incompetence. That the Iranian regime did not shut down air traffic when it was firing missiles at Iraqi bases, as any normal procedure requires, was nothing short of gross negligence.

The deaths of so many civilians, mostly Iranians, demonstrates the regime’s weakness, incompetence and callous disregard for the safety of its own citizens.

To be sure, the regime in the future may well engage in asymmetrical warfare. Iranian military leaders are bloviating and making dire threats against the United States and the West, but the image of the regime’s invulnerability has been forever punctured by its corruption, melded with its carelessness and incompetence.

For now, the U.S. is imposing additional sanctions on top of the already devastating ones, and Soleimani is gone.

The people of Iran have been demonstrating en masse for months, making it clear they don’t want to die fighting for Iraq, Syria or Lebanon or spend scarce resources that are so desperately needed at home.

They may now more openly begin to blame the regime and become more emboldened.

Perhaps the tragedy of Flight PS752 may also finally convince the Iranian theocratic dictatorship that it’s time to stop pursuing dangerous foreign adventures.

Aurel Braun is professor of international relations and political science at the University of Toronto Mississauga.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

G7 leaders should present a unified front against Russia, U of T expert writes in the Globe and Mail

rahul.kalvapalle — Thu, 22 Aug 2019 16:26:40 +0000

G7 leaders should present a unified front against Russia, U of T expert writes in the Globe and Mail

rahul.kalvapalle Thu, 08/22/2019 - 12:26

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Russian President Vladimir Putin (right, bottom) looks back as other world leaders, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, look on during a photo session at the G20 Summit in Osaka in June (photo by Tomohiro Ohsumi/AFP via Getty Images)

Topic

Russia

U of T Mississauga

World leaders gathering for this weekend’s G7 summit in the French resort town of Biarritz should make Russia a focus as it increasingly uses aggressive foreign forays to distract from problems at home, says Aurel Braun, a professor of international relations and political science at the University of Toronto Mississauga.

In an op-ed for the Globe and Mail, Braun, who is cross-appointed to the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy, writes that Russia, which is not a member of the G7, is showing “classic symptoms of imperial decline” amid a continued economic slide and a growing domestic protest movement.

At the same time, Braun notes, Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to oversee disruptive actions ranging from information warfare campaigns to military excursions designed to destabilize its neighbours as well as the G7 countries.

“The G7 must disabuse Mr. Putin’s Kremlin of its hopes of dividing the democracies by increasing their countries’ hard power while making a more determined and unified use of their vast soft power,” Braun writes. “With a policy of preventing but not provoking, they should make clear to Russia that they present no threat, but are resolute in resisting Russian military adventures or political interference.”

Read the op-ed in the Globe and Mail

This U of T Loran Scholar has been a volunteer and activist since grade school

noreen.rasbach — Wed, 19 Dec 2018 23:40:19 +0000

This U of T Loran Scholar has been a volunteer and activist since grade school

noreen.rasbach Wed, 12/19/2018 - 18:40

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“We see refugee crises around the world and I’ve always been passionate about helping those people because lots of times, their voices are not heard, or people speak for them,” says Nika Asgari (photo by Nick Iwanyshyn)

Peter Boisseau

Topic

City & Culture

Undergraduate Students

University College

As early as grade school, Nika Asgari has been passionate about social justice, helping refugees and promoting multiculturalism.

Since coming to the University of Toronto in September as a Loran Scholar, a prestigious four-year award valued at more than $100,000, Asgari has not wasted any time making an impact. She is a student in Munk One, a program at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy for first-year students who want to tackle global challenges. She is also the first-year representative for the Hart House Social Justice Committee and the U of T Young Liberals. Off campus, she volunteers with the Iranian Women’s Organization of Ontario.

“The fact that I can walk down the street and hear 10 different languages at one time is beautiful,” says Asgari, a University College student who is studying political science and international relations. “In Toronto, you truly get to meet people from around the world and hear their stories, and that’s the best way we can move forward as a country and as global citizens – to really understand where everyone comes from.”

Asgari, who is from Vancouver, is the daughter of Iranian refugees who fled to Canada in the 1980s to escape war. Their story, as well as those of others with similar experiences, ignited in Asgari a desire to help. In grade school, she mentored international students and founded a club to send volunteers to the local hospital and fundraise for disaster relief.

“We see refugee crises around the world and I’ve always been passionate about helping those people because lots of times, their voices are not heard, or people speak for them,” she says.

“They need someone to advocate for them who knows what they are going through and isn’t spreading hateful rhetoric.”

Asgari’s impressive volunteer work, which also included coaching soccer for disadvantaged youth, was among the reasons she was selected as a McCall MacBain Loran Scholar, which recognizes character, leadership and dedication to community service in young Canadians with high grades.

In addition to an annual $10,000 living stipend and matching tuition waiver, the award includes a dedicated mentor and up to $10,000 in funding for summer internships.

In Asgari’s case, the mentor is Kim Echlin, a novelist and former Giller Prize short-listed nominee who teaches creative writing at U of T’s School of Continuing Studies.

“She is outstanding,” says Asgari. “I’m really lucky.”

Fifty-nine Loran Scholars have chosen to attend U of T since the award was established in 1988 and Asgari is one of 12 currently enrolled, but the only one in first year.

As much as she’s enjoying campus life and her community work, Asgari says she is just getting started.

She’s hoping to join the intramural soccer team and continue exploring the city’s diverse offerings, including the vibrant food scene.

“The food here is amazing. It’s been a problem for my bank account, but I’m OK with it,” she says with a laugh.

U of T's Stephen Toope: what a Trump presidency will mean to the world is utterly unpredictable

Romi Levine — Mon, 09 Jan 2017 16:45:11 +0000

U of T's Stephen Toope: what a Trump presidency will mean to the world is utterly unpredictable

Romi Levine Mon, 01/09/2017 - 11:45

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Donald Trump protestors demonstrate outside the Pennsylvania Capitol Building last month (photo by Mark Makela/Getty Images)

Stephen Toope

Author legacy

Stephen Toope

Topic

Subheadline

"As hard as it may be to swallow, we have to find ways for Canada to reinforce Mr. Trump’s self-understanding as a 'winner,'" says Toope, director of U of T's Munk School of Global Affairs.

It’s customary as a new year begins to think about what the next twelve months may bring. From where I sit and as I reflect on global affairs, I’m worried that I have no idea how to predict what the man about to be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States will do in the next four years and what that will mean for the world.

Donald Trump is a real estate mogul and a reality TV star. What makes him tick is negotiating deals that benefit his interests. He cares about being a “winner” – and about being celebrated for that. He seems to take public criticism far more personally than hardened career politicians who know it comes with the territory. His message of bringing about change clearly resonated with voters, but what form will that change take? From what I’ve seen so far, he acts on gut instinct without investing much time or effort into listening to experts and understanding issues.

It is not evident that Mr. Trump has a firm ideological or ethical compass. He seems to blow with the wind, depending on one trusted adviser one day only to turn in another direction the next. Building long-term relationships does not appear to be important to him.

If you think about this tendency in a global security context, it could have serious repercussions. He has been dismissive of international institutions such as the UN that I believe play an important role in striving to maintain peace in the world. His recent tweet about strengthening American nuclear capability sent a chill through those of us who grew up in the height of the Cold War. While Russian president Vladimir Putin seems currently to be a Trump ally, the unpredictability factor makes me nervous – that could change in an instant. And what the reaction to this message might be in China and North Korea and the Middle East is a real concern.

It may turn out that the Republican Congress and Senate will be balancing factors. It may be that once in office and faced with the reality of leadership, he will rely on intelligent advisers. Or perhaps he will continue to think he alone has all the answers. It is utterly unpredictable.

What does this mean for Canada? Despite all his negativity on NAFTA, I don’t believe he’s thinking about us as much as Mexico. I’ve written previously that Canada should strengthen ties with Mexico. I still believe that. But we should do so in a way that doesn’t alienate us from the U.S., with which our economy is inextricably intertwined. We need to be seen as part of the solution – as helping Mr. Trump win. As hard as it may be to swallow, we have to find ways for Canada to reinforce Mr. Trump’s self-understanding as a “winner.” We need to make sure we stay connected to the people who have his ear at any given moment and make our voice heard. We must put more effort into building our U.S. relationships through multiple channels: governors, senators, civil society, corporations. It is not in our interest to become anti-American.

We also need to keep our eye on the long game. The next four years may be a roller-coaster ride when it comes to U.S. relations with the world. We must continue to support important international institutions and maintain close ties with NATO and G20 allies. And who knows? Perhaps we have an opportunity to attract talented people to Canada who might otherwise go to or be found in the U.S., but who share my uncertainty about what might happen there in the short term.

Trump, Syria, climate change and global security: U of T experts offer global look-ahead for 2017

geoff.vendeville — Tue, 20 Dec 2016 21:05:24 +0000

Trump, Syria, climate change and global security: U of T experts offer global look-ahead for 2017

geoff.vendeville Tue, 12/20/2016 - 16:05

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Photo by Sunil Pradhan/ NurPhoto via Getty Images

Romi Levine

Geoffrey Vendeville

Author legacy

Romi Levine and Geoffrey Vendeville

Topic

Environment

Politics

International

The Merriam-Webster Word of the Year was surreal – a word that captures how tumultuous 2016 was from start to finish.

Terrorist attacks in Brussels and Nice. A coup in Turkey. Brexit and a polarized America. The headlines have been so bleak some asked if the world is falling apart.

But there is hope, experts say. Here at home and around the world, Canadians are working to make the world a better place. They’re making Toronto a stronger, more inclusive city. They’re designing tiny, ant-like robots that may one day be able to rescue people after earthquakes. They're running free English classes for Syrian refugees and preserving precious U.S. environmental data for future generations.

“There's tons of hope,” says U of T's Aisha Ahmad. “The great hope is that universities like the University of Toronto remain an essential front line in putting out truth. In an ocean of fake news and fake information, we remain a bastion of science-driven, reason-based analysis that is essential to elevating this discussion.

“The great hope is that we continue to do this and that our students – world-class young scholars – in our classrooms and out there in the world continue to provide a critical voice of reason to this global conversation in 2017.”

U of T News spoke with Ahmad and other experts at the university to get a sense of what awaits us next year. Brace yourself.

Trump and the world: Robert Bothwell
Syria’s future: Aurel Braun
Climate change: Kate Neville, Matthew Hoffmann
The fate of Europe: Randall Hansen
Global security: Aisha Ahmad

President-elect Donald Trump will be inaugurated in January (photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Trump and the world

Professor Robert Bothwell of the Faculty of Arts & Science spoke to U of T News reporter Romi Levine about what the U.S. can expect once president-elect Donald Trump takes office.

The U.S.:
Who can say at this point? But the signs are not good for a tranquil Trump presidency domestically. And when you look at the cabinet appointments... words fail me. You appoint a climate change denier as head of the EPA. You appoint oil industry executives to handle pollution, and then you appoint somebody who doesn't believe in evolution to be secretary of education who also doesn't believe in public schools. And you appoint somebody who in business terms has been in bed with the Russians for quite a while as secretary of state? It's just terrifying. The appointments do prove that the United States is going to move significantly to the right.

China:
The signs aren't promising. Picking a quarrel with China for no good reason that I can see, that will probably dominate events. Obviously China won't do anything until after Jan. 20th, but at that point, if Trump wants any co-operation or any favours from China, I don't think that's going to happen.

Russia:
With Russia, it's hard to predict how that will play out. The thing is, Russia is inherently very weak but they play a weak hand very well. Putin is probably at the extremity of what he can afford with Syria. Will Trump actually prove to be the Siberian candidate or will he do what he claims he can do, and that is negotiate with Kremlin from a position of strength. Who knows? His various denials about Russian influence are meant to shore up his legitimacy as president.

Canada:
Where Canada will stand, heaven knows. We're obviously not front and centre on their agenda and that's probably good, but whether they are going to start bullying us for example on refugees, we just can't say. They may approach us and say 'If you want an open border, you're going to have to stop the refugees.'

We've never confronted this. There have been quarrels and disputes, but really, we've never had to confront an American administration that is as unpredictable as this one. Obviously Trudeau is not going to be palsy walsy with Trump. I'm sure Trudeau will do what his father did with Richard Nixon – he'll try and keep it on business and hope for the best but Trump's boasted prowess and negotiation style might mean that he will try to put the squeeze on us in a variety of ways.

International trade:
I think Trump will discover that revising NAFTA is harder than he thinks. He could denounce it of course, in which case I gather we in Canada would return to the free trade agreement that preceded NAFTA.

The most urgent problems will be in the Western Pacific, and they start with the end of the TPP. Since it has a larger political purpose, we should contemplate it carefully.

The TPP is dead. It was more important politically than economically. It was an attempt by Obama to shore up American alliances in the Pacific area. But that leaves Trump with no real policy in Western Pacific and with the virtual certainty of a real crisis out there, it just depends where it starts. Will it start with North Korea? Will North Korea continue to be aggressive in a nuclear fashion and will the Americans decide they better take it out before it gets really serious? That could happen. And then there's the Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and what will the Americans do about that?

Syria's future

The death toll in Syria is reported to have increased to more than 500,000 with half of the country's population displaced. Aurel Braun, U of T professor of political science and international relations at the Munk School of Global Affairs and University of Toronto Mississauga, spoke to U of T News reporter Romi Levine about the ongoing crisis. Braun is also an associate at Harvard University’s Davis Centre for Russian and Eurasian studies.

Pro-Assad forces have taken control of rebel-held eastern Aleppo. What does this mean for Syria’s future?

It certainly appears that the Assad regime is surviving. It's a major victory in tactical, strategic and psychological terms. It is also a terrible tragedy for the Syrian people. It's not that it was a simple matter of democratic rebels fighting the Syrian regime. Rebel forces consisted of all sorts of groups, some of which, such as Islamic State were committing horrible crimes themselves.

As Russia cozies up to president-elect Trump, will Putin shift support for the Assad regime in Syria?

The Russians have played a very powerful and effective tactical game, and it remains to be seen whether this was really a viable long-term and effective strategy.

There's also the unpredictable factor of an incoming (U.S.) administration, which at the moment seems to be very much inclined to be forthcoming and friendly to Russia, but that can in the long-term easily turn on Russia. Mr. Trump wants to be a winner, Mr. Putin wants to be the winner, and there can only be one winner. If you are looking at an economy that is eight times bigger than Russia, one where Mr. Trump intends to build up the American military, should there be a falling out? I suspect this would be very difficult for Russia. So it is possible at some point Russia will have to withdraw. It will be much more difficult without Russian help for the Syrian regime.

Is there likely to be intervention in Syria from countries like the U.S.?

It is hard and risky to predict, but the past is not encouraging. One of the key problems is, we often look at what is happening in Syria as a refugee problem rather than as a war problem. Let me emphasize as strongly as I can that I think it's essential for countries to treat refugees humanely. That it is so vital that we should care for people in need, that we ought to be forthcoming in trying to rescue those who are on boats trying to escape, those who are abused in camps trying to get into Europe and so on.

But the sad reality is that the refugee problem is really a manifestation, a symptom in a sense of the larger issue of war.

The world is not willing to address this to confront these regimes, to put a stop to Assad when there was still a possibility of creating a stable and viable opposition. I'm rather pessimistic in terms of the world's willingness to address the root causes of conflict.

Climate scientists are worried the U.S. will backtrack on environmental policies once Donald Trump is in office (photo by Billy Wilson via Flickr)

Climate change

Donald Trump has called climate change a “hoax perpetrated by the Chinese.” He has nominated a climate skeptic, Scott Pruitt, and ExxonMobile CEO Rex Tillerson to key cabinet positions. Kate Neville and Matthew Hoffman of the Faculty of Arts & Science spoke to U of T News writer Geoffrey Vendeville about environmental policy under Trump.

What does Donald Trump's election mean for environmental policies?

KN: I have a hard time at the moment knowing what his presidency means for just about anything. I say that not at all facetiously.

I think we're entering a very, very uncertain time. This is a man who doesn't take briefings. This is someone who doesn't understand how government works. None of the projections looks good for the environment. I think we can say fairly confidently we won't see improvements in many of the environmental areas that we might care about – everything from climate change to water protection, biodiversity and so on.

What do you think of his cabinet picks?

KN: I think they're terrifying.

Usually the secretary of state is not seen as an environmental appointment, but given that he's naming Rex Tillerson, the Exxon Mobile CEO, to that position, there are very clear environmental implications. This is someone who runs one of the world's largest oil and gas companies. This is someone whose company has been shown to have been actively involved in climate denialism for decades.

Scott Pruitt, his pick to lead the Environmental Protection Agency, has been fighting the Clean Power Plan. This is a climate skeptic who denies there is risk of water contamination from hydraulic fracturing.

What kind of impact might the Trump presidency have on climate science and research?

KN: Climate scientists are very worried. In fact, the University of Toronto recently had an archiving event for climate data because of the fear on both sides of the border that, not only will we see funding withdrawn from climate science, we might see the deletion of climate data sets.

Read the Toronto Star story
Read the BBC story
See the CBC story

What would the consequences be if Trump were to pull the United States out of the Paris climate agreement?

MH: This depends. The characteristics of the Paris agreement which is different from ones we’ve seen before, like in Kyoto, is that it’s designed to be decentralized. The agreement is a collection of individual state-based commitments. On some level, the Paris agreement depends less on the United States being there.

On the other hand, the US is a key player. It’s a political and financial leader. Some of the political fallout might be that if the US isn’t taking Paris seriously, other countries might reassess their commitments. The good thing is coming out of Marrakech a few weeks ago, countries have reaffirmed their commitments to Paris in the face of a Trump presidency.

Is there reason to be optimistic that we’ll see meaningful action on climate change in 2017?

MH: Outside the US, there’s potential to see quite a bit. If we look close to home, the pan-Canadian climate policy will start to ramp up. Ontario will implement its cap-and-trade program.

The fate of Europe

Britain voted to leave the European Union. Now what? Randall Hansen, a professor of political science, sat down with U of T News reporter Romi Levine to discuss Brexit and other issues, including tight European elections and tensions in the Baltic states.

Britain is set to begin the process of leaving the European Union in 2017. What is “Brexit” set to look like?

If Prime Minister (Theresa) May does what she says she will do, she will invoke article 50 by March and that will set in motion a two-year timetable for Britain to leave the European Union.

It's possible that some sort of compromise will be made for the United Kingdom. That's extremely unlikely. The ‘soft’ Brexit would require that Britain accept the free movement of workers, which it said it's not prepared to do. Everyone in the EU has said is that there can be no compromise on free movement. If you're a member of the single market, you have to accept the free movement of workers. Unless there's a compromise on that, there won't be a soft Brexit. There will only be a hard Brexit.

There was talk that some Brits would be able to opt in to keep their European citizenship. Is this likely to happen?

I regard this as a fantasy. The only way to get European citizenship is to be a citizen of a member state of the European Union, which is exactly what Britain will not be. There will probably be a deal on Britons already residing in the European Union, but what there won't be is this application option for Brits after Brexit to keep their European Citizenship.

It’s a big election year in Europe with the Netherlands, France and Germany all set to go to the polls. What can we expect?

I think the Front National will not come to power in France, and that is because the fathers of the French constitution, Michel Debré and Charles de Gaulle, knew the French better than they knew themselves and the two-ballot system means you need a majority to win. Only the top two candidates go forward to the second presidential ballot.

While it is probable that Marine Le Pen will be on the second ballot, it is possible, though unlikely, that she would lead on the first ballot. But it's almost impossible for her to get a majority on the second ballot. Even with a conservative candidate like François Fillon, the socialists will hold their noses and say he is better than she is. If Le Pen does win, it will be a disaster. She would promise to hold a referendum on France leaving the European Union and were that to pass, but I don't think it would (but I didn't think Brexit would happen either), there would be no European Union without France. The project would really, really be over.

If we have more attacks like we did in Berlin today, the calculus could change, but Germany is the least likely case for being turned over to the far-right because the Alternative for Germany (AfD) would have to get a plurality of votes – get the largest vote – and that seems to be incredibly unlikely. The other parties would have to be prepared, even in that situation, to work with the AfD.

Angela Merkel will most likely emerge as chancellor. In Germany, the major opposition party the Social Democrats cannot profit from the refugee crisis or from terrorism because they are, by definition, a pro-immigrant party and by definition an anti-Islamophobic party. So the two narratives you would need to leapfrog over Merkel aren't available to the Social Democrats or the Greens.

As Russia makes its presence known in the Baltic states, so do U.S. troops and NATO. Will tensions escalate in the next year?

This is the hardest to predict. This depends on the president-elect of the United States in part, who is the most unpredictable politician on the planet. His position can change over the course of a Tweet, much less over the course of an hour. It's very hard to know.

Putin is going to feel emboldened by the election of Donald Trump because Trump has made it clear he likes Putin because Putin said a few nice things about him absurdly enough, and because Trump has made critical comments about NATO.

In terms of NATO member states, there is so much institutional and political and historical weight behind NATO and so much support in the Republican congress that it would be very difficult for Trump to withdraw from NATO or massively reduce American support for NATO and only under those circumstances could you imagine the nuclear option – or the conventional option – the invasion of the Baltic States.

I think Ukraine is more of a danger zone. Putin will certainly do everything he can to make the Baltic States feel more insecure because he loves insecure states around him.

Global security

The world is highly volatile these days. Assistant Professor Aisha Ahmad, an international security expert, says the world is entering an era of great power transition and extreme uncertainty, threatening to destabilize our international system. She spoke with U of T News reporter Geoffrey Vendeville.

What are the biggest threats to international security next year and in the years to come?

The biggest threat to international security in 2017 is that we are witnessing a major shift in great power politics, with a president-elect that has signalled abandoning the Pax Americana that has defined our liberal international order, which has emboldened Russia both in eastern Europe and Syria. This of course exacerbates problems of terrorism, but it speaks to much more significant inter-state rivalries.

We're not talking about the violence of civil wars. We're talking about off-the-charts level of threats.

Think back to the First and Second World Wars. That's the magnitude of threat when great powers come into confrontation with each other.

What are the possible sources of conflict?

In Eastern Europe, we are facing the possibility of increased Russian aggression – largely because the US is sending mixed signals to Russia and Eastern Europe about how committed they are to NATO. Mixed signals create dangerous levels of uncertainty in international affairs, and nothing is worse for world politics than uncertainty.

In the Middle East, Aleppo has fallen. That conflict is going to be ongoing for the next decade with an ongoing insurgency and civil war stalemate for the foreseeable future. Turkey is very much in play in the Middle East. As a NATO ally that is increasing its ties with Russia, this warns us that states are re-evaluating how they are balancing and bandwagoning in this era of great power transition.

In East Asia, the atrocious gaffe over Taiwan has understandably aggravated the Chinese. China is the rising economic superpower in the world, and it's frankly pretty annoyed that Donald Trump took a call from the head of Taiwan. In response, China has mobilized in the South China Sea more aggressively while the incoming (U.S.) administration has signaled to allies South Korea and Japan that they might need to build up their nuclear arsenals. When great powers behave erratically, this sparks crises. In international affairs predictability and peace go hand in hand.

You mentioned the First and Second World Wars. Is the current situation really that bleak?

I'm usually the person who goes up to a panel, and I'm the one who says, “Ok, you need to calm down. Let's put the threat into perspective.” I'm not an alarmist.

I am not proposing we have a hysterical reaction. I am saying that this is the most serious international security situation I have encountered in my lifetime. If we had a Cuban Missile Crisis situation in the coming year, this would be catastrophic. We need steady hands at the helm, and rational leaders that follow predictable courses of action.

There are many threats on the horizon, but is there hope, too?

Yes, there's tons of hope. The great hope is that universities like the University of Toronto remain an essential front line in putting out truth. In an ocean of fake news and fake information, we remain a bastion of science-driven, reason-based analysis that is essential to elevating this discussion. The great hope is that we continue to do this and that our students – world-class young scholars – in our classrooms and out there in the world, continue to provide a critical voice of reason to this global conversation.

These interviews have been edited and condensed for length

Universities are gateways to opportunity and knowledge, Gertler tells international forum in Japan

lavende4 — Tue, 04 Oct 2016 15:31:39 +0000

Universities are gateways to opportunity and knowledge, Gertler tells international forum in Japan

lavende4 Tue, 10/04/2016 - 11:31

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University of Tokyo President Makoto Gonokami and University of Toronto President Meric Gertler after signing a Memoradum of Understanding between the two institutions

Terry Lavender

Author legacy

Terry Lavender

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President

Alumni

Universities are gateways – gateways of opportunity for young people, gateways to new knowledge, and gateways to their local regions and to the world, University of Toronto President Meric Gertler told delegates at a forum on science and technology in society this week.

The forum, which was also attended by U of T vice-president international Ted Sargent, was held in Kyoto, Japan. President Gertler participated in a panel on the role of universities, alongside Japan’s minister of education, culture, sport, science and technology. Sargent took part in a panel on the development of nano-industry.

Besides attending the science and technology forum in Kyoto, President Gertler also travelled to Tokyo where he met with U of T alumni and students.

He also signed collaboration and student exchange agreements with the president of the University of Tokyo and met with Ian Burney, the Canadian ambassador to Japan. The president was scheduled to arrive in Singapore on Oct. 5.

Great event & speech tonight in #tokyo with @UofT President Gertler and a fine bunch of @uoftalumni! #UofT pic.twitter.com/Vh1kYXEzjW
— Darren Menabney (@Darmenab) October 4, 2016

Universities are gateways of opportunity because they give students the tools and experience they need to succeed and thrive, President Gertler said at the forum, noting that a quarter of U of T’s domestic undergraduate students come from families with a household income under $50,000.

They’re gateways to new knowledge because they generate and collaborate on the research and innovation that drives the world, the president said. “Taken together, our institutions generate a vast amount of new knowledge, most of which finds its way into goods and services and ideas that improve and enrich the lives of the globe’s population.”

Finally, universities are geographical gateways – gateways to their local regions and to global knowledge networks.

“Our prosperity depends not only on the knowledge, know-how, and experience found at home, but also the knowledge originating in other leading centres of research and innovation around the world,” he said. “The new ideas, fresh perspectives, and novel approaches we encounter when crossing geopolitical and cultural borders help create new knowledge and solutions – by testing our assumptions, shifting the frame of reference, and offering new concepts.”

For Sargent, it was his first major international address since being appointed vice-president international early this year. A renowned researcher in nanotechnology, Sargent argued that the world should use low-cost, abundant renewable energies such as wind and solar to synthesize chemical fuels for energy storage, especially liquid carbon-based transportation fuels.

New technologies are emerging in university labs around the world – including the University of Toronto and the University of Tokyo – that can do this efficiently and effectively, Sargent said.

The result is renewable fuels that close the carbon cycle and reduce CO2 in the atmosphere, he said.

“A dream come true”: U of T students participate in UN dialogue on Responsibility to Protect

lavende4 — Thu, 15 Sep 2016 20:48:52 +0000

“A dream come true”: U of T students participate in UN dialogue on Responsibility to Protect

lavende4 Thu, 09/15/2016 - 16:48

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Tina Park: freedom from fear and freedom from want are critical for a more secure and peaceful future

Terry Lavender

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Terry Lavender

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CCR2P

United Nations