COVID-19: 鈥榃e want to control the burn as best we can,' U of T epidemiologists write in the Globe and Mail
Published: March 19, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic spreads like a forest fire, but we have tools to control the burn.
That鈥檚 according to a new op-ed by University of Toronto epidemiologists Ashleigh Tuite and David Fisman ,
鈥淎n epidemic ends when the number of immune people in a population passes a critical threshold (known as the herd immunity threshold),鈥 the researchers from U of T鈥檚 Dalla Lana School of Public Health write, adding that social distancing and other tools can nevertheless be used to mitigate the disease鈥檚 impact until a vaccine is developed.
鈥淚t can be helpful to think of the COVID-19 pandemic as a forest fire,鈥 they write. 鈥淭hose infected with COVID-19 are sparks being thrown off and those uninfected are the fuel.鈥
Tuite and Fisman鈥檚 mathematical modelling studies and the experience of countries such as Italy and Spain highlight the importance of intervening early to save lives.
鈥淭he time to implement wide-scale social distancing is before you have a crisis,鈥 the researchers write. 鈥淚f we wait until our hospitals are overwhelmed to react, we will have squandered our golden time and it will be too late.鈥
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